CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-04-03T16:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-04-03T16:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19654/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a large filament eruption best seen in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk in SDO/AIA 304 and along the western limb in a few frames of STEREO A EUVI 304. The CME is first visible to the SW in STEREO A COR2 followed by SOHO LASCO C2 and C3.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-06T22:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-06T08:15Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-04-03 21:19 - Time at C2: 2022-04-03 16:38 - Radial speed: 702.0 km/s - Half angle: 35 deg - Eruption location: S04W22 Inferences: - No flare association was found Predictions for Earth: - In-situ shock speed: 616.60 km/s - Shock arrival time: 2022-04-06 08:15 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.62 hours)Lead Time: 40.50 hour(s)
Difference: 14.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-04-05T06:15Z
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